Driven towards public transport


By Christopher Tan, Senior Correspondent
Apr 02, 2007
The Straits Times

OWNING a car in Singapore, and pretty much everywhere else, is increasingly a losing proposition. In all likelihood, my current car, a 15-month- old Toyota Wish MPV, will be my last.
It must come across as a bit strange for someone who has loved all things automotive since childhood and whose livelihood has been built around the automobile to say that.

But by the time my Wish runs its 10-year course, in 2016, the reasons for replacing it would be far fewer than those for not replacing it.


And they have little to do with the ageing process - I should still be a spritely 57-year-old - but all to do with economics.

By economics, I mean both money and time. Owning a car in the future will be an appreciably bigger drain on both resources than ever.

Although car prices are unlikely to head back to the heady levels of the mid-1990s, when a Toyota Corolla cost $130,000 and a Mercedes-Benz E200 cost $250,000, overall ownership cost will most definitely be a lot heftier than today.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong gave a glimpse of things to come recently when he said 'ERP will have to go up. There'll have to be more gantries at more places'.

Today, if you live in Yio Chu Kang and use the Central Expressway to get to work in town, you could chalk up $8 a day in ERP charges. By 2016, that could easily double. Ditto parking charges.

Singapore's vehicle population today stands at around 808,000, of which 60 per cent are cars. Ten years ago, in 1997, there were 683,000 vehicles here, of which 55 per cent were cars.

If you are a road-user, I am sure you would have felt the impact of the 18.3 per cent rise in the vehicular population in the past decade. I used to be able to leave my house in Serangoon at 6pm and make it to a 6.15pm appointment in Plaza Singapura, comfortably. Today, if I don't get going by 5.45pm, I'm toast.

Bus operator SBS Transit says the overall average speed of its fleet has fallen by 10 per cent to 17.5 kmh in the past five years alone.

In 2016, I reckon there would be 900,000 vehicles on the road - 11.4 per cent more than today, assuming an annual growth rate of one per cent from 2009, versus the 3 per cent cap that has been in place since 1990.

By then, other things being equal, the average speed of public buses could well drop by a further 25 per cent to 13 kmh (studies have shown that deterioration in travelling speeds can be disproportionately worse than increases in traffic). An above-average jogger can do better than 13 kmh.

The implications for those who insist on driving are clear. If I am among them, I might have to leave my house at 5pm to make that 6pm appointment in town.

So, it would not be an efficient use of time. When you are a young turk out to impress the world with your wheels, an hour's drive to town is probably worth it.

At 57, I imagine the chronological priorities are somewhat different. After all, there is an MRT station near where I live, and the Serangoon Interchange is where the North- east Line intersects the upcoming Circle Line.

A seven-minute walk brings me to the station (okay, 10 minutes when I'm 57), and a 13-minute ride takes me to Dhoby Ghaut. Another five-minute stroll takes me from the station to Plaza Singapura. Allow two minutes for waiting and the journey is all done in half an hour.

And I get the cardiovascular workout to boot.

No need to worry about ERP charges or having to circle around for a parking lot - which might cost more than a five-star hotel room on a per sq m, per hour basis.

When the Circle Line is up and running from 2010, a trip to the Botanic Gardens will probably take about 35 minutes (including walking). Holland Village will take five more minutes.

By then, the proposed Downtown Line should be in advanced stages of development too. The 40km line linking Bukit Timah and Bedok to Marina Bay will give a whole new cohort of drivers the opportunity to view the car as a leisurely pursuit rather than a means to commute.

That is how city dwellers should view the car in the first place. They will be doing their heart, their pockets and the environment a world of good.

After all, being stuck regularly in bumper-to-bumper traffic is not driving. It is an exercise in futility. Singaporeans who love driving can always hop across the Causeway and rent a car to enjoy long driving holidays or indulge in some serious track work in Sepang.

Or they could keep an off-peak car, which they can use on weekends, public holidays and in the evenings. To a large extent, that is what Tokyo-ites, Hong Kongers, New Yorkers, Parisians and, more recently, Londoners do with their cars.

For their daily commuting needs, they rely on public transport.

To help Singaporeans wean themselves off the car, the bar for public transport has to be raised. Buses and trains here not only have to be handicapped-accessible, they have to be friendly to the greying population as well as those with young families.

Only then will they be a travelling mode of choice, rather than a mode for the choice-less. Right now, the car is still the fastest and most comfortable way to get from point to point.

Although we can sit back, do nothing and let push factors like deteriorating traffic and high ERP charges drive people towards public transport, the availability of a viable alternative would be far more persuasive.

The sooner that option presents itself, the sooner folks will be willing to give up their cars. And not necessarily when they hit 57.

http://news.asiaone.com.sg/st/st_20070402_10649...

ALTHOUGH CAR PRICES ARE CHEAP AT THE MOMENT,ERP COST WILL KILL YOU. $8 A DAY FOR ERP CHARGES ? THAT'S CRAZY, I RATHER TAKE MRT OR BUS TO WORK. MY BIGGEST CONCERN IS HOW THE GOVERNMENT IS GOING TO DEAL WITH THE INCREASE NUMBER OF PEOPLE TAKING PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN THE FUTURE. ANY IDEAS ? MAYBE A MULTI STOREY BUS INTERCHANGE.